This week sees the return of the Capital One Cup, and the big teams will now be feeling good about their chances of lifting the trophy. Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool have all avoided each other in the Fourth Round and will hope they won’t slip up at this stage.
Betting wise, the cup is great for scoring markets, such as “both teams to score”. Teams playing rotated line ups look less cohesive defensively and that means goals, goals, goals. Look out for substitutes to nab late goals as well, especially in games like Shrewsbury versus Chelsea, where the home team may well tire late on. As usual we have an Easy Winner, a Medium Risk and a Long Shot accumulator bet, and the medium risk especially looks great value.
Easy Winner – Evens (Bet365)
- Manchester City v Newcastle, City to win (3/10) – Manchester City under Manuel Pelligrini have taken the League Cup seriously. This was shown perfectly in the last round, when City thumped Sheffield Wednesday 7-0. Expect them to walk over Newcastle with odds of 3/10.
- Tottenham v Brighton, Tottenham to win (4/9) – Spurs played with a good mix of youth and experience in the last round, when they beat Nottingham Forest. With fringe players aiming to impress, Tottenham look good value, even at 4/9.
- Shrewsbury v Chelsea, Chelsea to win (3/10) – Shrewsbury have got the kind of cup tie that lower league teams dream of, but they will struggle even if Chelsea put out their third team. The depth in Chelsea’s squad should ensure they go far in all four competitions. A Chelsea win is a very fair price of 3/10.
Medium Risk – 10/1 (Bet365)
- Manchester City v Newcastle, City’s highest scoring half to be the second half (6/5) – In the last round, City didn’t even score until the second half, when they put seven in. With the likelihood of young substitutes such as Jose Pozo coming on and looking to impress, 6/5 looks nice value for this bet.
- Tottenham v Brighton, Tottenham’s highest scoring half to be the second half (6/5) – Similarly to City, Tottenham have options from the bench that will likely make their second half team more goal-hungry. 6/5 is nice value as they scored all three of their goals in the last round in the second half.
- Shrewsbury v Chelsea, Chelsea’s highest scoring half to be the second half (6/5) – Apologies for the repetition, but Bet365 are offering great odds in this market and given Shrewsbury will come out all guns blazing and will likely hold their own in the early stages of this game it looks another great option here. As the home team tires and Chelsea settle into the game, goals will likely start flying in after the break and 6/5 for Chelsea to outscore their first half in the second seems like a very good bet.
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Long Shot – 112/1 (Bet365)
- Liverpool v Swansea, score draw after 90 minutes (15/4) – Liverpool tend to be fairly reliable when it comes to both scoring and conceding. With both sides now wondering if they can go all the way in the competition, they won’t give in easily. Both teams to score and the result to be a draw after 90 minutes is a fine option in our eyes at 15/4.
- Bournemouth v West Brom, score draw after 90 minutes (10/3) – When a team in the bottom half of the Premier League faces a Championship side in the cup, they are hard to separate. West Brom clearly have a stronger squad but also have half an eye on their league form. This could well lead to a score draw at Bournemouth. Both teams to score and the result to be a draw after 90 minutes is 10/3, and well worth snapping up.
- Stoke v Southampton, both teams to score and Southampton to win – The Saints are in great goal scoring form and look good value to overcome the cliché of the difficulties of playing Stoke on a cold midweek night at the Britannia. Both teams to score and Southampton to win is well-priced at 9/2.