The main football season may be over and many people will be desperate for the World Cup to get going (except the Brazilian builders of course, who could do with another month at least!). But before all that there are some crucial games to watch and bet on. Not least the Champions League final between the mighty Real Madrid and the newly crowned La Liga champions Atletico, but also a trio highly competitive play off finals.
Saturday 24th May 2014
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (19:45) – Atletico to win in 90 minutes (17/5 with BetVictor)
Atletico earned a point at the Nou Camp against Barcelona at the weekend which was enough for Diego Simeone’s men to become Spanish champions for the first time since 1996. Whether they have enough skill and determination to triumph against big city rivals Real in Lisbon on Saturday evening remains to be seen, but they certainly have a very good chance. Having beaten Real once in the league this season (drawing the other) as well as in the Copa Del Rey final last year, Simeone’s team appears to have the measure of their more illustrious neighbours and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get the victory.
Real, though, have a certain Cristiano Ronaldo amongst their ranks, and the Portuguese megastar has already scored an almost unbelievable 16 goals from his 10 appearances in this season’s Champions League. Add to that the five goals each from Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema and it is easy to see why the bookies have made Real the odds-on favourites to win in 90 minutes. We have a sneaking suspicion, however, that Simeone will mastermind a famous victory here and backing the outsiders to win in normal time looks like exceptional value to us.
Derby County v Queens Park Ranger (15:00) – QPR to win by one goal (4/1 with BetVictor)
This massive play off final between Derby and QPR (who finished third and fourth respectively in the Championship) gives the sides the chance to mix it with the big boys next season by making it through to the fun and games (not to mention wealth) of the Premier League. The rewards for the winning side here will be truly staggering, and whether that side will be Steve McClaren’s Derby or Harry Redknapp’s QPR is very tough to predict in what is sure to be a highly competitive match at Wembley.
Derby certainly finished the season the stronger of the two sides, winning seven and drawing one of their last eight in the league, while QPR won only four and lost three of their last 10. There was little between the teams when they met this season, with each winning their home match by a one-goal margin. Both managers have plenty of experience of leading teams out at Wembley, but QPR’s players have more big-match experience and it is this fact, we feel, that will be decisive on the day. Backing Redknapp’s men to win by a one-goal margin here looks a solid bet to us at nice odds.
Sunday 25th May 2014
Leyton Orient v Rotherham United (15:00) – Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
As with the Championship play off final, the League One showpiece will see the side that finished third (Leyton Orient) play the one who finished fourth (Rotherham). And while the gold of the Championship doesn’t glitter quite as brightly as that of the Premier League, there is no doubt both these sides will be giving everything to win this one. Orient overcame Peterborough in the semis, winning 2-1 at home and drawing 1-1 away; while Rotherham had similar fortunes against Preston North End, winning 3-1 on home soil after a 1-1 draw on the road.
The bookies make the Millers slight favourites to win in Sunday afternoon, but in truth there is very little between the teams and either could raise their game sufficiently to triumph at Wembley. Both sides won their home match against the other in the league this season and both had almost equally useful attacking records (Rotherham scored an average of 1.87 goals per game to Orient’s 1.85). As such, instead of tying to pick a winner we are instead going to opt to back a high-scoring match to ensue with over 2.5 goals looking top value at even money.
Monday 26th May 2014
Burton Albion v Fleetwood Town (15:00) – Draw at Half Time / Fleetwood at Full Time (19/4 with BetVictor)
Finally the League Two play off final sees Burton take on Fleetwood for a place in the third tier of English football. Interestingly (considering both these sides finished in the top six) Burton had the 5th worst attack of the 24 teams in League Two, scoring an average of just 1.02 goals per game; while Fleetwood had the fifth worst home defence in the division, conceding 1.3 goals per home match. Conversely, Burton had the best defence on the road and Fleetwood had the second best attack at home. As such, an early goal in this one could prompt a goalfest as desperation to win the match and the occasion itself causes defensive mistakes and mishaps galore.
In another match that is difficult to predict, either side is well capable of winning if they play to their capabilities or if they have a bit of luck. But our inkling is that Fleetword will edge this one after a tight first half. Backing the match to be all-square at the break then for the Cod Army to triumph by the final whistle looks decent value to us at attractive odds.