There is a chance that by the time the final round of Premier League matches kicks off on Sunday there won’t be much to play for. But on the other hand there could be exciting two-horse races in place for both the title and to avoid the final relegation place. So let us assume the latter as we analyse the best of Sunday’s action in the hope of picking out some winning bets.
Sunday 11th May 2014
Liverpool v Newcastle United (15:00) – Liverpool to win by four or more goals (7/2 with Bet365)
Assuming Liverpool win at Crystal Palace on Monday (which is no foregone conclusion, but failure to do so would hand the title to Man City) they will still be in with a shout of winning the Premier League coming into this one. If we assume still further than City also win their midweek game at home to Villa, Brendan Rodgers’ men will be hoping West Ham can pull something extraordinary out of the bag at the Etihad on Sunday. Failing that, given City have a goal difference which is nine better than Liverpool’s at the time of writing, the Reds might have to win this one 10-0 to claim their first ever Premier League title. Newcastle are rubbish… but not that rubbish.
Having said that we really wouldn’t be surprised if Luis Suarez and co put the Magpies to the sword here. Alan Pardew’s men might have beaten Cardiff 3-0 at the weekend (which sent the Bluebirds down to the Championship), but they lost their previous six and have been playing without energy or invention for weeks. Whether Liverpool have a chance of winning the title or not coming into this one, they will certainly want to produce a big performance at Anfield and we fancy a comfortable home win is on the cards. Backing the home side to win both halves looks nailed on but we are going further by backing them to win by four or more goals.
Manchester City v West Ham United (15:00) – Man City to win 3-0 (6/1 with Coral)
Manchester City certainly have their fate in their own hands after edging a 3-2 victory over Everton at Goodison on Saturday, but they still need to get the victories against Aston Villa (on Wednesday) and West Ham to clinch it. Manuel Pellegrini’s men have been exceptional on home soil for much of the season, but a home draw against Sunderland in April will send alarm bells ringing and a similar result from this or the Villa game could allow Liverpool to pip them to the Premier League crown.
Realistically though, we can’t see Sam Allardyce’s men having anywhere near enough ammunition to trouble City on Sunday. And though they battled to a deserved 0-0 draw at Chelsea in January, the Citizens are far more potent from an attacking perspective and we think they will have more than enough to get the three points that will probably bring them their second title in three years. Backing the home side to win to nil looks like a sensible bet to us given the Hammers have scored just 0.83 goals per away game this season, and 3-0 to City is our tip in the correct score market.
Norwich City v Arsenal (15:00) – Arsenal to win to nil (14/5 with Ladbrokes)
Norwich could well be already relegated by the time Arsenal roll into Carrow Road, but whether they are or not we can’t see them getting even a point against a Gunners side who are high on confidence after four straight league wins. Arsene Wenger might be tempted to leave out one or two of his first choice players with the FA Cup final (against Hull on 17th May) in mind, but such is the depth of his squad, especially in the midfield positions, that even if he does his men should have more than enough to overcome a Norwich side who have little attacking bite.
Realistically we think the Canaries will already be down, and as such Arsenal’s opponents are likely to be dejected and devoid of ambition for this one, which will simply allow the visitors to pick them off at will. Given Norwich have the worst attacking record in the top flight our main tip here is to back Arsenal to win to nil at nice odds.
Sunderland v Swansea City (15:00) – Sunderland to win by a one goal margin (14/5 with Ladbroke)
Sunderland’s fate is very much in their own hands after a strong run of fine results including a draw at Man City and victories at both Chelsea and – last time out – Manchester United. Gus Poyet has done an excellent job of motivating his troops in recent weeks and they are almost certain to edge to safety. But football is a strange beast and there is a fair chance they will need something from this match to make sure of their top flight status. If so there will be a lot of pressure on the players to perform against a team who has nothing much to play for but who – as a result – will be able to throw caution to the wind and give it a real go.
But having got the better of Chelsea and United we feel that confidence in the Sunderland camp will be sky high and we really can’t see Swansea spoiling the party at the Stadium of Light. It might not be anything like an emphatic victory, but we think the home side will edge it here and do enough to earn the victory that will keep them up and send Norwich hurtling towards the Championship. While backing both teams to score is likely to pay dividends, we feel backing the home side to win by a margin of a single goal offers better value, with 2-1 a decent option in the correct score market for those who want slightly longer odds.