We’re into the fourth round of the FA Cup this week and there are plenty of interesting clashes up and down the country including a Friday evening derby between Derby and Leicester. The struggling Premier League champions are in need of some cheer at the moment but may well be pushed hard by Derby who have the benefit of playing at home.
The following day we’re treated to an all-Premier League clash between Southampton and Arsenal. The Saints came out on top when the two met in the League Cup in November so we’ll see if they can knock the Gunners out of another domestic cup competition this season.
More action follows on Sunday and many will be tuning in to watch underdogs Sutton United for the first time as they take on Leeds. It’s a massive game for the non-league side, who have reached the fourth round for the third time in their history. Leeds sit three leagues above the south London side but we’ve seen shocks at this stage before so nothing can be ruled out. The final match on Sunday sees Manchester United host Wigan at Old Trafford. Jose Mourinho’s side are the overwhelmingly strong favourites to progress but they can’t afford any complacency against the 2013 winners.
Friday 27th January 2017
Derby v Leicester (19:55) – Derby to win (13/8 with Bet365)
Back to back 3-0 defeats in the Premier League can’t be considered ideal preparation coming into this cup tie for Leicester. Claudio Ranieri’s side haven’t been able to get going outside of the Champions League and their away form in particular makes for very poor reading. Their only away win since the end of September came in the last round of this competition and they are facing a side with a great home record. Derby are unbeaten in their last nine fixtures at Pride Park and have kept a clean sheet in all but one of them.
With the Rams so strong defensively at home, and Leicester struggling for goals, the Championship side look in a strong position for this match. They performed excellently to knock out West Brom in the last round and this looks like a competition Steve McClaren is taking seriously. With one top-tier scalp already taken this season, Derby should be confident of another. Neither side will be keen on a replay so you can expect Derby to take the game to Leicester in all or nothing fashion. At 13/8 they are good value to win and should be preferred over the out of form Premier League champions.
Saturday 28th January 2017
Southampton v Arsenal (17:30) – Southampton to win or draw (4/5 at Bet365)
Arsenal are on a six game unbeaten streak in all competitions and have the added bonus of having won this competition twice in the last three seasons. One more FA Cup victory would put them as the outright record holders but despite this, it’s expected that Arsene Wenger will rest a few big names here. His part-rotated team struggled against Preston last time out but they do have the ability to perform better than they did then. Playing away from home makes their job a little harder but the Gunners have only lost two away matches all season.
Claude Puel also tinkered with his side against Norwich in the last round. He may have felt he could afford to make changes against lower-tier opposition though and against Arsenal, a near full strength line up could be on the cards. With their Premier League campaign not looking like going anywhere this season, the FA Cup should mean a lot to the Saints. There’s reason to think Arsenal’s bogey team can maintain their good recent record over the Gunners here, one that currently reads four wins and one draw in the last seven meetings in all competitions.
Sunday 29th January 2017
Sutton United v Leeds (14:00) – Leeds to win by exactly one goal (13/5 with Coral)
While there is a growing trend of managers resting players for FA Cup ties, there is no risk of Sutton United boss, Paul Doswell, doing that. This match undoubtedly takes priority over their league campaign and the non-league side will be giving everything they have to reach the fifth round for the very first time. While they bring rather poor league form into the game, they will have plenty belief of causing another upset especially if Leeds name a second-string XI. Their belief will be helped by their artificial pitch, which according to Boswell, is a surface nobody likes playing on but them.
With Leeds very much in the hunt to secure a play-off place in the Championship this season, a good cup run will not be the priority of Gary Monk’s side. He made a whole host of changes when facing League two side Cambridge but with this game live on national television, he will eager to avoid a potentially embarrassing result. Monk has gotten Leeds playing some excellent football this season and while this does not look like being an easy game for them, the gulf in class may just be too much. Except Sutton to fight throughout but Leeds’ quality should give them the edge in a hard fought contest.
Manchester United v Wigan (16:00) – Manchester United to win by three or more goals (13/10 at Coral)
Manchester United breezed past Reading 4-0 in the third round and a similar outcome may well be in store for them again as they take on more Championship opposition. The Red Devils have some talented names who are likely to be called up for this match to give others a rest. With a handful of changes not weakening United too much, their side, on paper at least, will look far more formidable than any side Wigan boss Warren Joyce can name. That said, Joyce will at least be giving this game everything his squad has got as he looks to give Wigan their first ever taste of victory at Old Trafford.
Positive intentions are unlikely to be enough for the relegation threatened side however, who don’t look capable of causing a big upset this weekend. The Latics are the league’s worst scorers, averaging less than a goal a game so are likely to have a tough time against United’s strong defence. Defensively they have been sound under Joyce but they don’t usually have the likes of Marcus Rashford, Juan Mata and Anthony Martial to contend with. The odds for a United victory are incredibly short so it’s worth backing them to win by three or more goals for better returns.